Amazon Rainforest Is Nearing Point of No Return as It Loses Resilience

“Seeing such a resilience loss in observations is worrying. The Amazon Rainforest stores huge amounts of carbon that could be released in the case of even partial dieback.”

A new study based on a 30-year-satellite observation reveals that more than 75% of the Amazon’s virgin rainforest has lost the ability to restore itself after wildfires and droughts.

In a few decades, the Amazon Rainforest could turn into grassland and release huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere that will worsen global warming and accelerate climate change.

The Brink of Irreversible Dieback

Currently, the Amazon stores 90 billion to 140 billion metric tons of carbon, which helps to keep our planet cooler. Also, this vast rainforest pumps about 7 trillion tons of water into the atmosphere annually and recycles up to 75% of its yearly rainfall, which are among the factors that make Earth conducive for living.

However, deforestation and climate change have adversely affected the Amazon Rainforest over the last 30 years. Trees and other vegetation are losing their resilience, unable to grow back as fast as they used to. Resilience loss is observed to be greater in areas that are near agricultural lands, urban developments, and drier terrains.

“Many researchers have theorised that an Amazon tipping point could be reached, but our study provides vital empirical evidence that we are approaching that threshold,” said Professor Niklas Boers at the Technical University of Munich in Germany. The study was published in Nature in March 2022.

Bernardo Flores at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, who is not part of the study, commented, “The study shows that although the forest may seem fine, with its normal structure and biodiversity, internal processes are already changing, silently, reducing the system’s capacity to persist in the long run.”

According to Flores’s research with Milena Holmgren, a professor at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, wildfires are causing savannas to expand at the heartland of the Amazon.

Global Implications of Irreversible Dieback of the Amazon Rainforest

Once the Amazon Rainforest reaches the point of no return, wherein no amount of human effort can make any more difference, we can expect deadlier typhoons to arise, along with more destructive storm surges that will impact coastal communities and marine ecosystems around the world.

The disappearance of the rainforest will also lead to the loss of much wildlife, most of them endemic to the Amazon, like the macaws, harpy eagles, jaguars, poison dart frogs, and pink river dolphins. Among the region’s numerous flora species that are threatened by this irreversible dieback are exotic orchids, giant water lilies, passion flowers, coffee, and cacao.

Even agricultural lands will suffer due to the loss of watersheds, drier seasons, and long periods of drought that will impact more than 30 million people who live in the Amazon region. More wildfires are to be expected, contributing to more carbon emissions to the atmosphere, catastrophes that are recurring in the Amazon with more frequency since the mid-2000s.

This latest research is supported by another study, published in May 2021, which was led by Luciana Gatti at the National Institute for Space Research in Brazil. Their findings revealed that Amazon’s role as a carbon sink has already reversed due to forest burning. “We have a very negative loop that makes the forest more susceptible to uncontrolled fires. We need a global agreement to save the Amazon.”

Professor Simon Lewis from the University College London commented, “The positive feedback, where deforestation and climate change drive a release of carbon from the remaining forest that reinforces additional warming and more carbon loss is what scientists have feared would happen. Now we have good evidence this is happening. The south-east Amazon sink-to-source story is yet another stark warning that climate impacts are accelerating.”

How the Amazon Rainforest Dieback Will Impact the Antarctic Ice Sheets

Global warming has already adversely affected the Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), causing this underwater conveyor belt to weaken and slow down. This is caused by the rapid melting of ice sheets in the North Atlantic, which includes Greenland, according to Levke Caesar, who is a climatologist at Maynooth University in Ireland.

The Gulf Stream is one of the factors that regulate the climate in Western Europe, including Florida’s mild temperature. It also influences the strength and path of cyclones and controls sea levels in the Atlantic.

However, as more freshwater gets poured into the Atlantic ocean from melted ice, the surface waters become less salty and less dense. These surface waters also tend to lose their heat faster. All these conditions affect the rate of force and speed of the waters sinking into the deep, along with what should have been the ideal temperature for climate changes.

The disastrous effects on the US and Europe?

“Several studies have shown that a slowdown of the [AMOC] exacerbates sea-level rise on the US coast for cities like New York and Boston,” said Caesar.

Other studies have connected Northern Europe’s and the eastern USA’s severe heat waves and storm patterns to the weakened Gulf Stream. It has been predicted that if the current rate of climate change continues, Gulf Stream will reach its tipping point in 2100, and the effects will be catastrophic.

In a similar way, should the Amazon rainforest reach its tipping point – or irreversible dieback – global warming would further accelerate. And among the first to be impacted is Antarctica, where there will be a more rapid loss of ice sheets and a slowing down of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). ACC is the most powerful current in the world, and it is the only current that circulates completely around the globe.

The event will also speed up the melting of Thwaites Glacier, the so-called Doomsday glacier. If this happens, global sea levels will rise to more than two feet, and this will cause chaos around the world as millions of people suffer flooding, displacement, hunger, and other disasters.

But, according to Boers, the Amazon rainforest has not yet reached its tipping point.

“So there’s hope,” said Professor Tim Lenton, from Exeter University in the United Kingdom, who is a co-author of the study. “It supports efforts to reverse deforestation and degradation of the Amazon to give it back some resilience against ongoing climate change.”